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Abstract We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial–temporal generalized additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial–temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results highlight the decomposition of regional RSL changes over 3,000 years along North America’s Atlantic coast. The physical process glacial isostatic adjustment prevailed before 1800 CE, with anthropogenic forcing dominating after 1900 CE. 

Abstract Northward ocean heat transport at 26°N in the Atlantic Ocean has been measured since 2004. The ocean heat transport is large—approximately 1.25 PW, and on interannual time scales it exhibits surprisingly large temporal variability. There has been a long-term reduction in ocean heat transport of 0.17 PW from 1.32 PW before 2009 to 1.15 PW after 2009 (2009–16) on an annual average basis associated with a 2.5-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) drop in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The reduction in the AMOC has cooled and freshened the upper ocean north of 26°N over an area following the offshore edge of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current from the Bahamas to Iceland. Cooling peaks south of Iceland where surface temperatures are as much as 2°C cooler in 2016 than they were in 2008. Heat uptake by the atmosphere appears to have been affected particularly along the path of the North Atlantic Current. For the reduction in ocean heat transport, changes in ocean heat content account for about one-quarter of the long-term reduction in ocean heat transport while reduced heat uptake by the atmosphere appears to account for the remainder of the change in ocean heat transport.